Big Pine, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

613
FXUS65 KVEF 081941
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1241 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper wave continues to drift eastward across central
California, generating spotty high based showers. Most of this
activity has been confined to Nye, Lincoln, and northern Mohave
counties. Very little, if any of this is reaching the ground
outside of the higher elevations. At times, brief gusty winds may
occur with evaporative processes due to the high based nature of
this activity, and a deeply mixed environment. Otherwise,
unseasonably warm conditions persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
Aside from a few high based showers across portions of southern
Nevada and western Arizona, the weather pattern largely remains
dry and quite hot by autumn standards. Widespread highs in the 90s
to low 100s can be expected daily through the end of the week,
with probabilities of exceeding 95 degrees in the Las Vegas Valley
some 70-90% per the latest NBM. Hotter locations, such as Death
Valley and the Colorado River Valley see probabilities of 80-100%
of daily highs in the 100s. In all, it`s still toasty! Aside from
the heat, little in the way of impactful weather exists through
the end of the week. A brief uptick in winds may occur Friday as
the upper ridge becomes reestablished and southwesterlies kick in.



.LONG TERM...This Weekend into Next Week...
The heat will slowly begin to abate over the weekend and into next
week, with probabilities of 90s and 100s gradually falling by mid
week, and especially late week. Ensemble agreement is quite strong
in the handling of the broad upper ridge and anomalously high
height`s warm temperatures, so confidence continues to remain high
that a warm to borderline hot weather pattern will continue into
the first half of next week. While much uncertainty remains for
the latter half of the week, longer term ensemble solutions do
point to the emergence of an upper trough across the western U.S.,
which could signify a return to at least more normal fall like
conditions. This would result in cooler overnight lows and a
return of breezy afternoon winds as the upper ridge begins to
break down. Regardless, the overall weather pattern will remain
dry and rather uneventful over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally, good aviation conditions will continue today
at the terminal, with wind directions following typical diurnal
trends and sustained wind speeds remaining 8 knots or less.  A few
isolated showers will be possible north of the Vegas Valley,
generally impacting the Mormon Mesa and Beatty approaches through
the late afternoon and causing localized areas of gusty winds and
turbulence.  By this evening, winds will turn to the west, and skies
should gradually clear overnight. Expect to see fewer clouds on
Wednesday with just some isolated cumulus over the higher terrain.
Winds will remain light, but favor a northeast to east direction in
the afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...No significant aviation impacts are expected at
regional terminals for the remainder of today, with winds generally
remaining less than 10 knots and only FEW to SCT clouds with bases
AOA 12kft AGL.  The exception will be across the higher elevations
of the southern Great Basin, with a few areas of convective showers
and virga expected, which may cause localized areas of erratic winds
and turbulence through this evening. Winds generally less than 10
knots overnight along with clearing skies. Light winds will remain
in place through Wednesday with generally clear skies across the
area with just a few clouds around 12kft over the higher terrain.

&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Austin
AVIATION...Gorelow

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter