Big Pine, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

231
FXUS65 KVEF 020817
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1217 AM PST Thu Jan 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures remain near or above normal for the next
week or so as passing systems bring periods of increased winds. Best
chance for impactful winds appears to be early next week, especially
in the lower Colorado River Valley. Light precipitation possible
in the Sierra and northern fringes of the area, but otherwise we
stay dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday.

500mb heights rise today as a broad, transient ridge builds in from
the southwest. This will push temperatures 2-6 degrees warmer than
yesterday, with the largest increases across our northern and
eastern locations. Other than some stubborn northerly breezes in the
Laughlin-Needles area, winds remain light across the area.

Our next system moves through Friday into early Saturday, pushing
the ridge off to our east. The main thing with this system will be
the increased winds, though even those do not look very impactful.
Strongest winds are forecast to be on the Sierra crest Friday, but
do not appear to warrant any product issuance at this time.
Probabilities for 55 mph gusts are around 50% above 10kft, but
closer to 30-40% between 7-10 kft. Down in the Owens Valley,
probabilities for 40 mph gusts are only ~25%. Gusty conditions
spread across the rest of the area Friday night and Saturday, but
the potential for impactful winds remains 30% or less.

The trough also brings light precipitation chances (10-30%) to the
Sierra and far northern fringes of the CWA. However, any amounts
will be light. At the 90th percentile (reasonable worst-case
scenario), valleys rains remain less than a tenth of an inch while
mountain snow accumulations range from a dusting to up to 2" at the
Sierra crest. Snow levels are forecast to be between 5-7 kft
throughout the event. Temperatures drop on Saturday behind the
system, but values stay near or above normal.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday.

For those of you who have come to the long term portion of this
forecast discussion in search of the promise of rain, prepare to be
disappointed. We will find ourselves under a region of persistent
dry northwesterly flow aloft as we head into next week due a high
amplitude ridge over the eastern Pacific. A shortwave trough will
slide down the leeward side of this ridge, dropping into our are on
Tuesday. Gusty north winds will accompany this system with gusts
over 40 mph likely (70-90%) in the lower Colorado River Valley and
possible (30-50%) across the rest of the area on Tuesday. Gusty
northerly winds will linger down the Colorado River Valley into the
second half of the week as this shortwave dives south of our
forecast area. While the exact fate of this shortwave trough beyond
Wednesday remains uncertain due to interensemble discrepancies, the
one thing that ensemble members can agree on is that our dry streak
will continue through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...No operationally significant clouds,
winds, or weather expected through Friday. There could be a risk of
northerly winds reaching 10 knots on Saturday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...No operationally significant clouds or weather expected
through Friday. For today, the strongest winds will be northerly
gusts around 20 knots in the Colorado River Valley. Westerly winds
will increase over the Sierra crest tonight, with gusts around 30
knots. These winds will increase Friday, with gusts of 40 to 45
knots over the Sierra crest, and southwesterly gusts of 20 to 30
knots over the Spring Mountains and the higher terrain of the
southern Great Basin.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Woods
LONG TERM...Stessman
AVIATION...Morgan

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter